For SJK, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team SJK conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
23 IFK Mariehamn
4:0
+131
08/07
Away
24 Oulu
2:1
+48
29/06
Home
36 Haka
2:1
+53
19/06
Away
37 Ilves Tampere
2:2
+37
12/06
Home
16 EIF
3:1
+42
07/06
Away
39 HJK
1:4
+3
31/05
Home
23 IFK Mariehamn
0:2
+3
27/05
Away
13 Lahti
4:0
+60
Similarly, for Lahti, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Away
42 KuPS
0:1
+40
14/07
Home
24 Oulu
1:2
+19
08/07
Away
29 Inter Turku
0:3
+3
29/06
Home
37 Ilves Tampere
2:2
+36
19/06
Home
19 Gnistan
3:3
+17
12/06
Away
24 Oulu
2:2
+25
07/06
Home
29 Inter Turku
0:2
+3
02/06
Away
19 Gnistan
1:2
+13
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 377 points to the home team and 156 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (SJK) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 52.94% of victories for the team SJK occurred in home matches. For the team Lahti this indicator is 55.17%. On average, this equates to 54.06%, suggesting a slight advantage for SJK all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
SJK
SJK 52.94%
Lahti
Lahti 55.17%
Average
Average 54.06%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.06% of the home team's points and 45.94% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is SJK with an advantage of 204 points against 72. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.99% to 26.01%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 16.08% with a coefficient of 6.22. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.35, and for the away team's victory it is 10.13. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 88.24%, and the away team's victory - 11.77%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Lahti's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.97%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 10.13, while in reality, it should be 4.58.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.35
6.22
10.13
Our calculation
1.61
6.22
4.58
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
10.13
2024 June
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2024 July
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
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