For Galway United, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Galway United conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
30/08
Home
37 Derry City
1:0
+58
25/08
Away
33 Shamrock Rovers
1:1
+42
11/08
Home
27 St Patrick's
1:1
+25
02/08
Away
22 Dundalk
2:0
+76
27/07
Away
32 Sligo Rovers
0:2
+5
12/07
Home
33 Waterford
1:0
+51
04/07
Home
25 Bohemians Dublin
1:1
+19
28/06
Away
34 Shelbourne
0:2
+4
Similarly, for Shamrock Rovers, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/09
Home
32 Sligo Rovers
4:0
+128
01/09
Away
25 Bohemians Dublin
1:2
+25
25/08
Home
34 Galway United
1:1
+29
11/08
Home
19 Drogheda Utd
1:1
+14
02/08
Away
33 Waterford
2:1
+60
04/07
Home
22 Dundalk
1:0
+26
28/06
Away
32 Sligo Rovers
0:2
+5
13/06
Away
27 St Patrick's
1:2
+20
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 281 points to the home team and 306 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Galway United) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.25% of victories for the team Galway United occurred in home matches. For the team Shamrock Rovers this indicator is 63.33%. On average, this equates to 59.79%, suggesting a slight advantage for Galway United all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Galway United
Galway United 56.25%
Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers 63.33%
Average
Average 59.79%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.79% of the home team's points and 40.21% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Galway United with an advantage of 168 points against 123. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.69% to 42.31%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.67% with a coefficient of 3.37. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.5, and for the away team's victory it is 2.39. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 40.61%, and the away team's victory - 59.39%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Galway United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 15.46%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.5, while in reality, it should be 2.46.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.5
3.37
2.39
Our calculation
2.46
3.37
3.36
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.5
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 651
ROI +4.79%
EARNINGS +$3118
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
QUANTITY 256
ROI +8.54%
EARNINGS +$2187
USA. MLS
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