For Boston River, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Boston River conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/09
Away
33 Danubio
0:2
+6
18/08
Home
16 Deportivo Maldonado
1:0
+26
28/07
Away
49 Nacional Montevideo
0:1
+49
22/07
Home
33 Danubio
1:2
+24
13/07
Home
25 Miramar Misiones
2:1
+43
06/07
Home
32 Cerro
2:0
+76
23/06
Away
23 Liverpool Montevideo
0:1
+18
17/06
Home
29 Cerro Largo
0:2
+3
Similarly, for Fenix, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
08/09
Home
29 Cerro Largo
1:0
+56
18/08
Away
33 Danubio
0:1
+29
27/07
Home
21 Progreso
1:1
+22
21/07
Away
50 Penarol
0:2
+7
14/07
Home
33 Defensor Sporting
1:2
+26
07/07
Home
21 River Plate Montevideo
1:0
+35
22/06
Away
16 Deportivo Maldonado
3:1
+42
16/06
Home
36 Montevideo Wanderers
3:1
+87
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 245 points to the home team and 304 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Boston River) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.14% of victories for the team Boston River occurred in home matches. For the team Fenix this indicator is 51.02%. On average, this equates to 54.08%, suggesting a slight advantage for Boston River all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Boston River
Boston River 57.14%
Fenix
Fenix 51.02%
Average
Average 54.08%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.08% of the home team's points and 45.92% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Fenix with an advantage of 139 points against 132. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.29% to 48.71%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.15% with a coefficient of 3.43. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.39, and for the away team's victory it is 3.45. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 59.11%, and the away team's victory - 40.89%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Fenix's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 10.28%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.45, while in reality, it should be 2.75.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.39
3.43
3.45
Our calculation
2.9
3.43
2.75
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.45
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
Uruguay. Primera Division
QUANTITY 226
ROI +18.04%
EARNINGS +$4076
2024 September
QUANTITY 650
ROI +4.95%
EARNINGS +$3218
USA. MLS
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