For Valerenga, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Valerenga conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
01/09
Away
14 Sandnes Ulf
2:0
+44
24/08
Home
36 Lyn
4:2
+114
18/08
Away
26 Levanger
4:1
+118
11/08
Home
30 Raufoss
3:0
+150
03/08
Away
37 Moss
2:0
+109
29/07
Home
27 Ranheim
3:1
+67
20/07
Away
21 Start
2:1
+37
23/06
Home
14 Sandnes Ulf
8:0
+60
Similarly, for Asane, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
02/09
Home
31 Kongsvinger
2:1
+52
26/08
Away
35 Stabaek
1:1
+49
20/08
Home
20 Aalesund
2:0
+49
10/08
Home
40 Bryne
2:5
+2
03/08
Away
14 Sandnes Ulf
3:0
+77
27/07
Home
30 Raufoss
0:0
+23
20/07
Away
36 Lyn
1:3
+5
23/06
Home
37 Moss
1:4
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 700 points to the home team and 259 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Valerenga) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 42.42% of victories for the team Valerenga occurred in home matches. For the team Asane this indicator is 63.33%. On average, this equates to 52.88%, suggesting a slight advantage for Valerenga all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Valerenga
Valerenga 42.42%
Asane
Asane 63.33%
Average
Average 52.88%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.88% of the home team's points and 47.12% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Valerenga with an advantage of 370 points against 122. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 75.21% to 24.79%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 12.15% with a coefficient of 8.23. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.23, and for the away team's victory it is 14.97. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 92.4%, and the away team's victory - 7.6%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Asane's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 17.06%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 14.97, while in reality, it should be 4.59.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.23
8.23
14.97
Our calculation
1.51
8.23
4.59
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
14.97
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 650
ROI +4.95%
EARNINGS +$3218
Norway. 1st Division
QUANTITY 286
ROI +2.98%
EARNINGS +$851
USA. MLS
2024 © betzax.com