For Fenix, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Fenix conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
08/09
Away
30 Flandria
0:1
+31
04/09
Home
24 Villa San Carlos
0:0
+23
23/08
Away
22 Sportivo Italiano
0:3
+2
19/08
Home
30 Argentino de Merlo
0:1
+24
11/08
Away
27 Liniers
0:3
+2
05/08
Home
24 Comunicaciones
1:0
+36
27/07
Away
41 Deportivo Armenio
0:0
+33
22/07
Home
38 Argentino de Quilmes
1:2
+24
Similarly, for Dock Sud, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
07/09
Home
41 Midland
2:3
+34
31/08
Away
33 Los Andes
1:0
+78
24/08
Home
15 Canuelas
1:1
+14
17/08
Away
23 Deportivo Laferrere
3:2
+43
11/08
Home
31 Deportivo Merlo
0:1
+21
06/08
Away
20 Sacachispas
3:1
+63
27/07
Home
24 Excursionistas
2:2
+17
20/07
Away
20 Acassuso
2:0
+53
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 175 points to the home team and 322 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Fenix) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.02% of victories for the team Fenix occurred in home matches. For the team Dock Sud this indicator is 54.39%. On average, this equates to 52.7%, suggesting a slight advantage for Fenix all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Fenix
Fenix 51.02%
Dock Sud
Dock Sud 54.39%
Average
Average 52.7%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.7% of the home team's points and 47.3% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Dock Sud with an advantage of 153 points against 92. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.27% to 37.73%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.21% with a coefficient of 3.31. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.66, and for the away team's victory it is 3.11. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 53.86%, and the away team's victory - 46.14%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Dock Sud's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 16.13%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.11, while in reality, it should be 2.3.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.66
3.31
3.11
Our calculation
3.8
3.31
2.3
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.11
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 650
ROI +4.95%
EARNINGS +$3218
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
QUANTITY 490
ROI +2.27%
EARNINGS +$1110
USA. MLS
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