For Grobinas, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Grobinas conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
42 Valmiera
0:0
+57
08/07
Home
18 Tukums-2000
2:1
+27
02/07
Away
31 Auda
1:0
+63
27/06
Home
33 BFC Daugavpils
3:0
+108
22/06
Home
51 Riga FC
0:6
+2
16/06
Home
16 Jelgava
4:2
+33
02/06
Away
59 Rigas Futbola Skola
0:5
+3
29/05
Away
17 Liepaja
0:3
+1
Similarly, for METTA/LU, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/07
Home
18 Tukums-2000
0:0
+20
07/07
Home
33 BFC Daugavpils
3:2
+50
01/07
Away
16 Jelgava
0:1
+15
25/06
Away
17 Liepaja
5:1
+94
20/06
Away
42 Valmiera
0:3
+4
16/06
Away
31 Auda
0:4
+1
02/06
Away
51 Riga FC
0:5
+2
29/05
Home
59 Rigas Futbola Skola
0:6
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 293 points to the home team and 187 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Grobinas) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.69% of victories for the team Grobinas occurred in home matches. For the team METTA/LU this indicator is 51.61%. On average, this equates to 57.15%, suggesting a slight advantage for Grobinas all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Grobinas
Grobinas 62.69%
METTA/LU
METTA/LU 51.61%
Average
Average 57.15%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.15% of the home team's points and 42.85% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Grobinas with an advantage of 168 points against 80. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 67.64% to 32.36%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.94% with a coefficient of 3.34. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.94, and for the away team's victory it is 2.77. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 48.45%, and the away team's victory - 51.55%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Grobinas's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 19.41%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.94, while in reality, it should be 2.11.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.94
3.34
2.77
Our calculation
2.11
3.34
4.41
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.94
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
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