For Changchun Yatai, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Changchun Yatai conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
25 Shenzhen Peng City
1:2
+22
13/07
Away
57 Shanghai Shenhua
2:3
+49
06/07
Away
27 Tianjin Tigers
2:2
+28
30/06
Home
21 Qingdao Hainiu
5:0
+103
26/06
Home
37 Shandong Taishan
2:2
+32
15/06
Away
30 Zhejiang Professional
1:3
+4
26/05
Home
25 Henan Songshan Longmen
0:0
+20
22/05
Away
19 Qingdao West Coast
2:2
+17
Similarly, for Cangzhou Mighty Lions, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/07
Home
57 Shanghai Shenhua
0:5
+3
12/07
Home
24 Wuhan Three Towns
1:1
+26
06/07
Home
25 Shenzhen Peng City
1:1
+28
30/06
Away
46 Chengdu Rongcheng
0:4
+2
26/06
Away
37 Beijing Guoan
0:4
+2
16/06
Home
21 Qingdao Hainiu
0:1
+14
26/05
Away
62 Shanghai Port
1:4
+4
21/05
Away
14 Nantong Zhiyun
1:1
+11
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 275 points to the home team and 91 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Changchun Yatai) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.39% of victories for the team Changchun Yatai occurred in home matches. For the team Cangzhou Mighty Lions this indicator is 52.46%. On average, this equates to 53.42%, suggesting a slight advantage for Changchun Yatai all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai 54.39%
Cangzhou Mighty Lions
Cangzhou Mighty Lions 52.46%
Average
Average 53.42%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.42% of the home team's points and 46.58% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Changchun Yatai with an advantage of 147 points against 42. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 77.69% to 22.31%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 18.9% with a coefficient of 5.29. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.44, and for the away team's victory it is 8.45. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 85.41%, and the away team's victory - 14.6%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Cangzhou Mighty Lions's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.87%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 8.45, while in reality, it should be 5.53.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.44
5.29
8.45
Our calculation
1.59
5.29
5.53
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
8.45
2024 June
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2024 July
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
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