For St Patrick's, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team St Patrick's conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
05/09
Away
22 Dundalk
2:1
+50
01/09
Home
19 Drogheda Utd
4:1
+79
11/08
Away
33 Galway United
1:1
+38
04/08
Home
32 Sligo Rovers
3:2
+43
04/07
Away
33 Waterford
0:1
+26
28/06
Home
25 Bohemians Dublin
0:0
+20
13/06
Home
32 Shamrock Rovers
2:1
+41
07/06
Away
19 Drogheda Utd
0:0
+18
Similarly, for Waterford, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/09
Home
22 Dundalk
2:1
+36
31/08
Away
32 Sligo Rovers
0:2
+6
23/08
Home
37 Derry City
0:1
+27
09/08
Away
25 Bohemians Dublin
3:2
+44
02/08
Home
32 Shamrock Rovers
1:2
+22
26/07
Away
19 Drogheda Utd
0:2
+3
12/07
Away
33 Galway United
0:1
+23
04/07
Home
27 St Patrick's
1:0
+36
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 315 points to the home team and 196 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (St Patrick's) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.69% of victories for the team St Patrick's occurred in home matches. For the team Waterford this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 52.34%, suggesting a slight advantage for St Patrick's all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
St Patrick's
St Patrick's 54.69%
Waterford
Waterford 50%
Average
Average 52.34%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 52.34% of the home team's points and 47.66% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is St Patrick's with an advantage of 165 points against 93. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.85% to 36.15%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.42% with a coefficient of 4.27. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.74, and for the away team's victory it is 5.22. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 75%, and the away team's victory - 25%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Waterford's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.15%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.22, while in reality, it should be 3.61.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.74
4.27
5.22
Our calculation
2.04
4.27
3.61
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.22
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
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EARNINGS +$11416
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
QUANTITY 256
ROI +8.54%
EARNINGS +$2187
2024 September
QUANTITY 674
ROI +3.01%
EARNINGS +$2027
Romania. Liga I
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
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