For Koge, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Koge conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
14/09
Away
31 Kolding IF
1:1
+35
01/09
Home
38 Fredericia
3:4
+32
24/08
Away
43 Esbjerg
1:4
+4
20/08
Home
26 B 93
0:4
+1
16/08
Away
30 Hillerod
2:4
+5
11/08
Home
35 Horsens
0:2
+4
02/08
Away
29 Hobro
1:2
+20
26/07
Home
61 Odense
0:4
+2
Similarly, for Vendsyssel, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
14/09
Home
30 Hillerod
0:3
+2
30/08
Away
61 Odense
0:2
+10
24/08
Away
35 Horsens
1:1
+41
21/08
Home
29 Hobro
0:3
+2
17/08
Away
43 Esbjerg
1:3
+7
10/08
Home
31 Kolding IF
2:1
+44
02/08
Away
26 B 93
2:1
+44
27/07
Away
38 Fredericia
2:4
+5
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 104 points to the home team and 154 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Koge) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.39% of victories for the team Koge occurred in home matches. For the team Vendsyssel this indicator is 59.02%. On average, this equates to 57.2%, suggesting a slight advantage for Koge all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Koge
Koge 55.39%
Vendsyssel
Vendsyssel 59.02%
Average
Average 57.2%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.2% of the home team's points and 42.8% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Vendsyssel with an advantage of 66 points against 59. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.6% to 47.4%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.01% with a coefficient of 4.76. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.24, and for the away team's victory it is 1.67. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 24.15%, and the away team's victory - 75.85%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Koge's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 23.26%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.24, while in reality, it should be 2.67.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
5.24
4.76
1.67
Our calculation
2.67
4.76
2.41
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
5.24
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 674
ROI +3.01%
EARNINGS +$2027
Romania. Liga I
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
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