For Otelul Galati, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Otelul Galati conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
14/09
Away
15 Buzau
0:0
+19
30/08
Home
26 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
2:0
+72
23/08
Away
33 Petrolul Ploiesti
0:0
+38
10/08
Away
19 UTA Arad
1:1
+22
02/08
Home
29 Hermannstadt
1:0
+41
26/07
Away
24 FCSB
2:0
+69
22/07
Home
22 Farul Constanta
0:0
+15
15/07
Away
16 Botosani
3:2
+27
Similarly, for Dinamo Bucuresti, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/09
Home
25 Unirea Slobozia
1:0
+43
02/09
Away
50 Universitatea Cluj
0:1
+52
24/08
Home
37 Universitatea Craiova
2:1
+53
18/08
Away
22 Rapid Bucuresti
1:1
+28
12/08
Away
24 Politehnica Iasi
2:2
+30
02/08
Home
15 Buzau
4:1
+48
27/07
Away
26 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1:1
+29
21/07
Home
33 Petrolul Ploiesti
4:1
+101
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 302 points to the home team and 384 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Otelul Galati) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.19% of victories for the team Otelul Galati occurred in home matches. For the team Dinamo Bucuresti this indicator is 66.1%. On average, this equates to 59.65%, suggesting a slight advantage for Otelul Galati all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Otelul Galati
Otelul Galati 53.19%
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti 66.1%
Average
Average 59.65%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.65% of the home team's points and 40.35% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Otelul Galati with an advantage of 180 points against 155. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.76% to 46.24%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.94% with a coefficient of 3.34. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.43, and for the away team's victory it is 3.46. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.8%, and the away team's victory - 41.2%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Dinamo Bucuresti's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.04%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.46, while in reality, it should be 3.09.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.43
3.34
3.46
Our calculation
2.65
3.34
3.09
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.46
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 674
ROI +3.01%
EARNINGS +$2027
Romania. Liga I
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
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