Charleston Battery vs Sacramento Republic prediction

Charleston Battery

For Charleston Battery, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Charleston Battery conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Sacramento Republic

Similarly, for Sacramento Republic, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

Identifying the favourite

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 432 points to the home team and 401 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Charleston Battery) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.16% of victories for the team Charleston Battery occurred in home matches. For the team Sacramento Republic this indicator is 61.02%. On average, this equates to 62.09%, suggesting a slight advantage for Charleston Battery all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.09% of the home team's points and 37.91% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Charleston Battery with an advantage of 268 points against 152. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.82% to 36.18%.

Bookmakers odds and probability

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.81% with a coefficient of 4.03. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.82, and for the away team's victory it is 4.93. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 73.03%, and the away team's victory - 26.97%. This differs from our calculations.

Match prediction

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sacramento Republic's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.22%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.93, while in reality, it should be 3.68.

We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.