For Viimsi, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Viimsi conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Home
46 Harju JK Laagri
4:4
+52
13/07
Home
40 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
2:4
+6
10/07
Away
32 FCI Levadia II
2:1
+57
06/07
Away
42 FC Tallinn
2:0
+119
29/06
Away
11 Tabasalu Charma
3:0
+50
16/06
Home
17 Kalev Tallinn II
3:1
+43
02/06
Home
46 Harju JK Laagri
2:2
+37
30/05
Away
16 Paide Linnameeskond II
5:0
+63
Similarly, for FCI Levadia II, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Away
40 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
1:1
+50
13/07
Away
16 Paide Linnameeskond II
1:3
+2
10/07
Home
41 Viimsi
1:2
+34
06/07
Home
11 Tabasalu Charma
5:1
+51
30/06
Home
40 Flora II
1:3
+5
15/06
Away
20 Elva
3:2
+35
02/06
Home
42 FC Tallinn
0:1
+28
30/05
Away
17 Kalev Tallinn II
3:1
+44
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 427 points to the home team and 250 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Viimsi) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 45.16% of victories for the team Viimsi occurred in home matches. For the team FCI Levadia II this indicator is 54.69%. On average, this equates to 49.93%, suggesting a slight advantage for Viimsi all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Viimsi
Viimsi 45.16%
FCI Levadia II
FCI Levadia II 54.69%
Average
Average 49.93%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 49.93% of the home team's points and 50.08% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Viimsi with an advantage of 213 points against 125. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.06% to 36.94%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 19.88% with a coefficient of 5.03. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.63, and for the away team's victory it is 5.37. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 76.74%, and the away team's victory - 23.26%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of FCI Levadia II's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 13.68%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.37, while in reality, it should be 3.38.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.63
5.03
5.37
Our calculation
1.98
5.03
3.38
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
5.37
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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