For Ufa, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Ufa conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
15/09
Home
30 Rodina
2:0
+85
07/09
Away
22 Shinnik
0:2
+5
31/08
Home
42 Torpedo Moscow
0:1
+24
25/08
Home
32 FC Sochi
3:4
+17
18/08
Away
29 Sokol Saratov
1:0
+57
12/08
Home
39 Ural
0:2
+3
02/08
Home
12 Tyumen
2:2
+8
26/07
Away
33 Baltika
1:1
+36
Similarly, for Chaika Peschanokopskoe, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
15/09
Home
22 Shinnik
2:2
+18
10/09
Away
23 SKA-Khabarovsk
0:1
+28
02/09
Away
30 Rotor Volgograd
0:0
+36
25/08
Home
24 Yenisey
2:0
+53
18/08
Away
39 Ural
0:2
+6
11/08
Home
30 Rodina
2:2
+27
03/08
Away
42 Torpedo Moscow
1:1
+41
28/07
Home
26 Neftekhimik
4:0
+105
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 235 points to the home team and 314 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Ufa) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 68.42% of victories for the team Ufa occurred in home matches. For the team Chaika Peschanokopskoe this indicator is 59.62%. On average, this equates to 64.02%, suggesting a slight advantage for Ufa all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Ufa
Ufa 68.42%
Chaika Peschanokopskoe
Chaika Peschanokopskoe 59.62%
Average
Average 64.02%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.02% of the home team's points and 35.98% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Ufa with an advantage of 151 points against 113. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 57.11% to 42.89%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.67% with a coefficient of 3.26. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.39, and for the away team's victory it is 3.63. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 60.28%, and the away team's victory - 39.72%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Chaika Peschanokopskoe's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.17%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.63, while in reality, it should be 3.36.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.39
3.26
3.63
Our calculation
2.53
3.26
3.36
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.63
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