For Tristan Suarez, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tristan Suarez conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
23 Alvarado
2:1
+59
14/07
Home
31 Racing Cordoba
1:0
+35
07/07
Away
26 Patronato
0:3
+3
30/06
Home
24 Almirante Brown
2:2
+19
22/06
Home
29 All Boys
1:0
+27
08/06
Home
26 Agropecuario Argentino
2:1
+29
02/06
Away
23 Guillermo Brown
1:2
+21
25/05
Home
37 San Martin San Juan
0:1
+16
Similarly, for Atletico Guemes, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
29 All Boys
2:1
+33
14/07
Away
26 Agropecuario Argentino
1:3
+5
07/07
Home
23 Guillermo Brown
1:1
+15
30/06
Away
37 San Martin San Juan
0:1
+39
23/06
Home
21 Arsenal Sarandi
0:1
+11
09/06
Home
38 San Martin de Tucuman
0:0
+22
01/06
Away
25 Chacarita Juniors
0:2
+4
26/05
Home
30 Estudiantes Caseros
1:0
+32
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 210 points to the home team and 160 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tristan Suarez) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.16% of victories for the team Tristan Suarez occurred in home matches. For the team Atletico Guemes this indicator is 63.83%. On average, this equates to 63.49%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tristan Suarez all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez 63.16%
Atletico Guemes
Atletico Guemes 63.83%
Average
Average 63.49%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.49% of the home team's points and 36.51% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Tristan Suarez with an advantage of 133 points against 59. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 69.46% to 30.54%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 32.68% with a coefficient of 3.06. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.54, and for the away team's victory it is 3.58. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.51%, and the away team's victory - 41.49%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Tristan Suarez's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.51%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.54, while in reality, it should be 2.14.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.54
3.06
3.58
Our calculation
2.14
3.06
4.86
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.54
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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