For Tombense, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Tombense conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Home
29 Figueirense
1:1
+23
16/07
Away
25 ABC-RN
0:1
+27
08/07
Home
30 Nautico-PE
0:0
+21
02/07
Away
36 Londrina
3:3
+46
27/06
Home
17 Caxias
2:1
+17
22/06
Home
23 Floresta
3:0
+63
15/06
Away
22 Aparecidense
1:2
+20
11/06
Away
36 Ypiranga
0:1
+33
Similarly, for Athletic, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/07
Away
30 Nautico-PE
2:2
+45
13/07
Home
36 Londrina
2:1
+51
07/07
Away
29 Figueirense
0:0
+38
05/07
Away
10 Sao Jose-RS
0:0
+12
30/06
Home
43 Sao Bernardo
1:4
+2
27/06
Away
21 Sampaio Correa-MA
1:3
+4
16/06
Home
18 Ferroviario
3:1
+31
09/06
Home
43 Volta Redonda
3:2
+45
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 251 points to the home team and 228 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Tombense) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.27% of victories for the team Tombense occurred in home matches. For the team Athletic this indicator is 63.49%. On average, this equates to 65.38%, suggesting a slight advantage for Tombense all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Tombense
Tombense 67.27%
Athletic
Athletic 63.49%
Average
Average 65.38%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.38% of the home team's points and 34.62% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Tombense with an advantage of 164 points against 79. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 67.49% to 32.51%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.21% with a coefficient of 3.31. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.8, and for the away team's victory it is 2.93. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 51.16%, and the away team's victory - 48.84%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Tombense's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 16.33%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.8, while in reality, it should be 2.12.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.8
3.31
2.93
Our calculation
2.12
3.31
4.41
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.8
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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