For Stjordals-Blink, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Stjordals-Blink conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
47 Kjelsas
1:2
+51
22/06
Home
49 Skeid
0:0
+48
16/06
Away
28 Alta
1:6
+2
08/06
Away
31 Strindheim
2:1
+59
01/06
Home
8 Gjovik-Lyn
4:0
+29
26/05
Away
35 Eidsvold Turn
3:0
+186
20/05
Home
39 Grorud
2:2
+30
12/05
Away
39 Strommen
0:2
+5
Similarly, for Strommen, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
8 Gjovik-Lyn
3:0
+31
22/06
Away
35 Eidsvold Turn
1:2
+40
16/06
Home
17 Junkeren
2:2
+18
08/06
Away
39 Grorud
3:2
+72
01/06
Home
31 Strindheim
3:0
+125
26/05
Away
43 Tromsdalen
2:3
+38
20/05
Away
49 Skeid
1:2
+36
12/05
Home
36 Stjordals-Blink
2:0
+77
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 409 points to the home team and 435 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Stjordals-Blink) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60% of victories for the team Stjordals-Blink occurred in home matches. For the team Strommen this indicator is 59.7%. On average, this equates to 59.85%, suggesting a slight advantage for Stjordals-Blink all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Stjordals-Blink
Stjordals-Blink 60%
Strommen
Strommen 59.7%
Average
Average 59.85%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.85% of the home team's points and 40.15% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Stjordals-Blink with an advantage of 245 points against 175. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 58.35% to 41.65%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.28% with a coefficient of 4.7. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.7, and for the away team's victory it is 4.98. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 74.5%, and the away team's victory - 25.5%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Strommen's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 15.35%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.98, while in reality, it should be 3.05.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.7
4.7
4.98
Our calculation
2.18
4.7
3.05
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
4.98
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