For Stabaek, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Stabaek conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
27 Raufoss
0:0
+35
23/06
Home
29 Levanger
1:0
+45
16/06
Away
18 Start
3:4
+21
12/06
Home
22 Mjondalen
4:2
+51
01/06
Away
33 Sogndal
3:2
+64
27/05
Home
37 Egersund
4:5
+24
22/05
Away
29 Ranheim
0:3
+2
16/05
Home
32 Lyn
2:2
+21
Similarly, for Moss, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
36 Kongsvinger
1:0
+59
23/06
Away
19 Asane
4:1
+124
16/06
Home
38 Bryne
1:0
+47
09/06
Away
44 Valerenga
1:5
+2
01/06
Home
15 Aalesund
1:0
+20
27/05
Away
22 Mjondalen
2:1
+39
21/05
Home
18 Start
2:1
+19
16/05
Away
27 Raufoss
2:0
+70
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 263 points to the home team and 379 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Stabaek) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 63.79% of victories for the team Stabaek occurred in home matches. For the team Moss this indicator is 64.06%. On average, this equates to 63.93%, suggesting a slight advantage for Stabaek all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Stabaek
Stabaek 63.79%
Moss
Moss 64.06%
Average
Average 63.93%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 63.93% of the home team's points and 36.07% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Stabaek with an advantage of 168 points against 137. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 55.19% to 44.81%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.87% with a coefficient of 4.19. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.05, and for the away team's victory it is 3.64. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 63.91%, and the away team's victory - 36.09%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Moss's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.47%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.64, while in reality, it should be 2.93.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.05
4.19
3.64
Our calculation
2.38
4.19
2.93
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.64
2024 June
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
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