For Sporting San Jose, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Sporting San Jose conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
15/09
Away
40 Cartagines
0:1
+48
11/09
Home
10 Santos de Guapiles
1:1
+7
31/08
Home
43 AD San Carlos
2:3
+24
26/08
Away
36 Herediano
0:2
+7
19/08
Home
28 Municipal Liberia
1:0
+32
12/08
Away
8 Puntarenas
2:1
+16
04/08
Home
27 Guanacasteca
2:2
+14
30/07
Away
20 Perez Zeledon
2:0
+64
Similarly, for Alajuelense, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
08/09
Home
27 Guanacasteca
4:0
+108
02/09
Home
38 Saprissa
1:1
+32
25/08
Away
43 AD San Carlos
0:0
+58
11/08
Home
20 Perez Zeledon
2:1
+23
04/08
Away
40 Cartagines
1:0
+85
29/07
Home
19 Municipal Santa Ana
1:1
+15
25/07
Away
28 Municipal Liberia
2:1
+51
22/07
Home
10 Santos de Guapiles
2:1
+9
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 212 points to the home team and 380 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Sporting San Jose) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 68.33% of victories for the team Sporting San Jose occurred in home matches. For the team Alajuelense this indicator is 61.67%. On average, this equates to 65%, suggesting a slight advantage for Sporting San Jose all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Sporting San Jose
Sporting San Jose 68.33%
Alajuelense
Alajuelense 61.67%
Average
Average 65%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65% of the home team's points and 35% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Sporting San Jose with an advantage of 138 points against 133. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.83% to 49.17%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.49% with a coefficient of 3.51. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.12, and for the away team's victory it is 2.12. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 33.91%, and the away team's victory - 66.09%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sporting San Jose's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 15.81%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.12, while in reality, it should be 2.75.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.12
3.51
2.12
Our calculation
2.75
3.51
2.84
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
4.12
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 674
ROI +3.01%
EARNINGS +$2027
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