For Spirit, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Spirit conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
20 Hills United
1:4
+2
13/07
Away
20 St George Saints
2:0
+78
06/07
Home
52 Rockdale Ilinden
1:2
+36
29/06
Away
20 Central Coast Mariners U-21
0:3
+2
25/06
Home
20 Sutherland Sharks
1:3
+2
22/06
Away
33 St George City FA
4:3
+57
15/06
Home
30 Western Sydney Wanderers U-21
1:0
+35
12/06
Away
38 Sydney United
0:3
+3
Similarly, for Sydney Olympic, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
52 Rockdale Ilinden
2:1
+94
17/07
Home
43 APIA Tigers
1:1
+43
13/07
Home
20 Central Coast Mariners U-21
1:2
+15
07/07
Away
32 Wollongong Wolves
2:1
+59
29/06
Home
25 Manly United
2:1
+33
15/06
Home
20 Sutherland Sharks
1:1
+17
12/06
Away
47 Marconi Stallions
4:0
+216
09/06
Away
38 Sydney United
1:0
+53
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 216 points to the home team and 531 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Spirit) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.94% of victories for the team Spirit occurred in home matches. For the team Sydney Olympic this indicator is 50.85%. On average, this equates to 55.89%, suggesting a slight advantage for Spirit all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Spirit
Spirit 60.94%
Sydney Olympic
Sydney Olympic 50.85%
Average
Average 55.89%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.89% of the home team's points and 44.11% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Sydney Olympic with an advantage of 234 points against 121. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.01% to 33.99%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.42% with a coefficient of 4.27. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.59, and for the away team's victory it is 1.83. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 28.45%, and the away team's victory - 71.55%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Spirit's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.3%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.59, while in reality, it should be 3.84.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.59
4.27
1.83
Our calculation
3.84
4.27
1.98
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
4.59
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
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ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. National Premier League. New South Wales
QUANTITY 172
ROI +45.74%
EARNINGS +$7867
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