For Spirit U-20, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Spirit U-20 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
21 Hills United U-20
5:1
+126
13/07
Away
26 St George Saints U-20
1:1
+34
11/07
Home
22 Sutherland Sharks U-20
4:1
+90
06/07
Home
52 Rockdale Ilinden U-20
2:5
+4
29/06
Away
52 Central Coast Mariners U-20
0:2
+8
22/06
Away
39 St George City FA U-20
4:3
+68
18/06
Away
27 Sydney United U-20
0:8
+1
15/06
Home
37 Western Sydney Wanderers U-20
2:2
+26
Similarly, for Sydney Olympic U-20, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/07
Home
38 Manly United U-20
1:4
+3
19/07
Home
52 Rockdale Ilinden U-20
2:3
+40
12/07
Home
52 Central Coast Mariners U-20
0:5
+2
07/07
Away
11 Wollongong Wolves U-20
3:0
+59
21/06
Home
24 APIA Tigers U-20
0:2
+2
11/06
Away
52 Marconi Stallions U-20
0:3
+4
09/06
Away
27 Sydney United U-20
1:1
+26
01/06
Away
39 St George City FA U-20
2:3
+30
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 356 points to the home team and 167 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Spirit U-20) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 59.09% of victories for the team Spirit U-20 occurred in home matches. For the team Sydney Olympic U-20 this indicator is 56.72%. On average, this equates to 57.9%, suggesting a slight advantage for Spirit U-20 all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Spirit U-20
Spirit U-20 59.09%
Sydney Olympic U-20
Sydney Olympic U-20 56.72%
Average
Average 57.9%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.9% of the home team's points and 42.1% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Spirit U-20 with an advantage of 206 points against 70. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 74.58% to 25.42%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.31% with a coefficient of 4.29. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.22, and for the away team's victory it is 3.15. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.64%, and the away team's victory - 41.36%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Spirit U-20's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 15.94%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.22, while in reality, it should be 1.75.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.22
4.29
3.15
Our calculation
1.75
4.29
5.13
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.22
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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