For Rockdale Ilinden U-20, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Rockdale Ilinden U-20 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/07
Away
20 Sydney Olympic U-20
3:2
+42
14/07
Home
27 Sydney United U-20
2:0
+78
06/07
Away
27 Spirit U-20
5:2
+146
30/06
Home
21 Hills United U-20
4:2
+64
23/06
Away
34 Blacktown City U-20
1:3
+5
16/06
Home
38 Manly United U-20
1:0
+52
12/06
Away
26 St George Saints U-20
4:1
+120
09/06
Home
37 Western Sydney Wanderers U-20
2:0
+74
Similarly, for APIA Tigers U-20, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Away
27 Sydney United U-20
1:3
+5
13/07
Home
11 Wollongong Wolves U-20
2:0
+27
07/07
Home
22 Sutherland Sharks U-20
0:2
+3
29/06
Home
26 St George Saints U-20
1:1
+21
26/06
Home
27 Sydney United U-20
3:2
+36
21/06
Away
20 Sydney Olympic U-20
2:0
+65
16/06
Home
52 Marconi Stallions U-20
2:5
+3
13/06
Home
39 St George City FA U-20
1:5
+1
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 582 points to the home team and 161 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Rockdale Ilinden U-20) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.22% of victories for the team Rockdale Ilinden U-20 occurred in home matches. For the team APIA Tigers U-20 this indicator is 64.18%. On average, this equates to 59.7%, suggesting a slight advantage for Rockdale Ilinden U-20 all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Rockdale Ilinden U-20
Rockdale Ilinden U-20 55.22%
APIA Tigers U-20
APIA Tigers U-20 64.18%
Average
Average 59.7%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.7% of the home team's points and 40.3% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Rockdale Ilinden U-20 with an advantage of 347 points against 65. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 84.28% to 15.72%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 18.08% with a coefficient of 5.53. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.5, and for the away team's victory it is 6.47. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 81.14%, and the away team's victory - 18.86%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Rockdale Ilinden U-20's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.77%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.5, while in reality, it should be 1.45.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.5
5.53
6.47
Our calculation
1.45
5.53
7.77
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
1.5
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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