For Pittsburgh Riverhounds, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Pittsburgh Riverhounds conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Home
20 Hartford Athletic
3:1
+55
14/07
Home
27 Oakland Roots
5:0
+130
07/07
Home
28 Monterey Bay
0:1
+18
30/06
Away
30 Las Vegas Lights
0:2
+5
23/06
Away
27 North Carolina FC
0:0
+30
20/06
Home
47 Louisville City
0:1
+24
16/06
Away
20 Hartford Athletic
0:2
+3
09/06
Away
45 Charleston Battery
0:0
+44
Similarly, for Loudoun United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
24/07
Home
45 Charleston Battery
1:2
+31
14/07
Away
33 Indy Eleven
1:1
+42
04/07
Home
20 Hartford Athletic
3:0
+77
30/06
Home
40 Tampa Bay Rowdies
2:0
+90
23/06
Away
9 Miami FC
2:2
+10
15/06
Home
30 Las Vegas Lights
1:1
+23
02/06
Home
26 Tulsa Roughnecks
3:0
+81
26/05
Away
29 Orange County SC
2:0
+85
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 310 points to the home team and 440 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Pittsburgh Riverhounds) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.71% of victories for the team Pittsburgh Riverhounds occurred in home matches. For the team Loudoun United this indicator is 62.69%. On average, this equates to 61.7%, suggesting a slight advantage for Pittsburgh Riverhounds all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 60.71%
Loudoun United
Loudoun United 62.69%
Average
Average 61.7%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.7% of the home team's points and 38.3% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Pittsburgh Riverhounds with an advantage of 191 points against 168. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.18% to 46.82%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.75% with a coefficient of 4.21. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.68, and for the away team's victory it is 5.97. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 78.01%, and the away team's victory - 21.99%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Loudoun United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 20.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.97, while in reality, it should be 2.8.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.68
4.21
5.97
Our calculation
2.47
4.21
2.8
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
5.97
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
2024 © betzax.com