For Palmeiras, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Palmeiras conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
25/07
Away
17 Fluminense
0:1
+21
21/07
Home
38 Cruzeiro-MG
2:0
+100
18/07
Away
44 Botafogo-RJ
0:1
+44
12/07
Home
14 Atletico-GO
3:1
+32
08/07
Home
34 Bahia
2:0
+62
05/07
Away
19 Gremio
2:2
+23
02/07
Home
22 Corinthians-SP
2:0
+40
27/06
Away
38 Fortaleza-CE
0:3
+3
Similarly, for Vitoria-BA, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
25/07
Home
43 Flamengo
1:2
+28
21/07
Away
19 Gremio
0:2
+4
18/07
Away
38 Fortaleza-CE
1:3
+8
12/07
Home
44 Botafogo-RJ
0:1
+26
08/07
Home
23 Criciuma
2:1
+24
05/07
Away
22 Corinthians-SP
2:3
+21
01/07
Home
31 Athletico Paranaense
0:1
+13
28/06
Away
17 Fluminense
1:0
+34
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 325 points to the home team and 157 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Palmeiras) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.41% of victories for the team Palmeiras occurred in home matches. For the team Vitoria-BA this indicator is 66.67%. On average, this equates to 65.54%, suggesting a slight advantage for Palmeiras all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Palmeiras
Palmeiras 64.41%
Vitoria-BA
Vitoria-BA 66.67%
Average
Average 65.54%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 65.54% of the home team's points and 34.46% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Palmeiras with an advantage of 213 points against 54. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 79.7% to 20.3%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 18.59% with a coefficient of 5.38. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.41, and for the away team's victory it is 9.39. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 86.91%, and the away team's victory - 13.09%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Vitoria-BA's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 7%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 9.39, while in reality, it should be 6.05.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.41
5.38
9.39
Our calculation
1.54
5.38
6.05
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
9.39
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Brazil. Serie A
QUANTITY 467
ROI +15.29%
EARNINGS +$7139
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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