For Montevideo Wanderers, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Montevideo Wanderers conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
26 Racing Montevideo
1:0
+51
14/07
Home
27 Progreso
4:2
+77
08/07
Away
39 Defensor Sporting
1:1
+44
23/06
Home
23 River Plate Montevideo
1:3
+3
16/06
Away
24 Fenix
1:3
+3
08/06
Home
53 Penarol
2:0
+123
01/06
Home
21 Rampla Juniors
2:1
+28
25/05
Away
21 Miramar Misiones
0:2
+2
Similarly, for Deportivo Maldonado, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Away
27 Progreso
1:0
+59
13/07
Home
26 Racing Montevideo
1:1
+25
06/07
Away
53 Penarol
1:1
+64
22/06
Home
24 Fenix
1:3
+3
15/06
Away
23 River Plate Montevideo
1:1
+23
09/06
Home
39 Defensor Sporting
0:2
+4
03/06
Away
24 Danubio
1:1
+24
26/05
Home
24 Fenix
0:1
+16
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 332 points to the home team and 219 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Montevideo Wanderers) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.45% of victories for the team Montevideo Wanderers occurred in home matches. For the team Deportivo Maldonado this indicator is 55.36%. On average, this equates to 54.4%, suggesting a slight advantage for Montevideo Wanderers all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Montevideo Wanderers
Montevideo Wanderers 53.45%
Deportivo Maldonado
Deportivo Maldonado 55.36%
Average
Average 54.4%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.4% of the home team's points and 45.6% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Montevideo Wanderers with an advantage of 181 points against 100. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 64.41% to 35.59%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.49% with a coefficient of 3.51. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.33, and for the away team's victory it is 3.51. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 60.11%, and the away team's victory - 39.89%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Montevideo Wanderers's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 3.67%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.33, while in reality, it should be 2.17.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.33
3.51
3.51
Our calculation
2.17
3.51
3.93
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.33
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Uruguay. Primera Division
QUANTITY 225
ROI +18.56%
EARNINGS +$4176
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
2024 © betzax.com