For Meizhou Hakka, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Meizhou Hakka conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
14/09
Away
19 Cangzhou Mighty Lions
1:2
+19
17/08
Home
26 Changchun Yatai
2:1
+39
09/08
Away
61 Shanghai Port
2:7
+3
03/08
Home
28 Tianjin Tigers
3:2
+41
28/07
Away
27 Qingdao Hainiu
2:4
+4
21/07
Away
20 Qingdao West Coast
3:3
+21
13/07
Home
13 Nantong Zhiyun
2:1
+18
07/07
Away
28 Zhejiang Professional
0:4
+1
Similarly, for Beijing Guoan, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
14/09
Away
44 Chengdu Rongcheng
2:2
+59
16/08
Home
28 Zhejiang Professional
0:0
+26
11/08
Away
20 Qingdao West Coast
2:2
+23
04/08
Home
53 Shanghai Shenhua
2:1
+92
26/07
Away
18 Shenzhen Peng City
0:1
+13
21/07
Home
28 Tianjin Tigers
2:0
+73
12/07
Away
61 Shanghai Port
1:5
+2
07/07
Home
25 Wuhan Three Towns
1:2
+17
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 147 points to the home team and 306 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Meizhou Hakka) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.9% of victories for the team Meizhou Hakka occurred in home matches. For the team Beijing Guoan this indicator is 52.54%. On average, this equates to 57.72%, suggesting a slight advantage for Meizhou Hakka all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Meizhou Hakka
Meizhou Hakka 62.9%
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan 52.54%
Average
Average 57.72%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.72% of the home team's points and 42.28% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Beijing Guoan with an advantage of 129 points against 85. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.4% to 39.6%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 24.33% with a coefficient of 4.11. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.79, and for the away team's victory it is 2.03. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 34.93%, and the away team's victory - 65.07%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Meizhou Hakka's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.67%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.79, while in reality, it should be 3.34.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.79
4.11
2.03
Our calculation
3.34
4.11
2.19
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
3.79
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 674
ROI +3.01%
EARNINGS +$2027
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