For Marconi Stallions, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Marconi Stallions conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/07
Away
25 Manly United
1:0
+57
13/07
Home
33 St George City FA
2:1
+60
07/07
Away
20 Central Coast Mariners U-21
1:0
+39
28/06
Away
17 Sydney FC U-21
4:0
+101
22/06
Home
20 Sutherland Sharks
3:3
+17
19/06
Home
52 Rockdale Ilinden
9:0
+221
16/06
Away
43 APIA Tigers
4:1
+194
12/06
Home
35 Sydney Olympic
0:4
+1
Similarly, for Sydney United, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
43 APIA Tigers
2:0
+129
14/07
Away
52 Rockdale Ilinden
0:4
+3
07/07
Home
41 Blacktown City
0:2
+6
29/06
Away
20 Sutherland Sharks
1:0
+37
23/06
Home
20 St George Saints
0:0
+16
15/06
Away
20 Hills United
3:2
+38
12/06
Home
25 Spirit
3:0
+86
09/06
Home
35 Sydney Olympic
0:1
+23
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 690 points to the home team and 337 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Marconi Stallions) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 52.24% of victories for the team Marconi Stallions occurred in home matches. For the team Sydney United this indicator is 50.77%. On average, this equates to 51.5%, suggesting a slight advantage for Marconi Stallions all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Marconi Stallions
Marconi Stallions 52.24%
Sydney United
Sydney United 50.77%
Average
Average 51.5%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.5% of the home team's points and 48.5% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Marconi Stallions with an advantage of 355 points against 163. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 68.49% to 31.51%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.28% with a coefficient of 4.7. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.59, and for the away team's victory it is 6.25. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 79.69%, and the away team's victory - 20.31%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sydney United's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 8.02%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 6.25, while in reality, it should be 4.03.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.59
4.7
6.25
Our calculation
1.85
4.7
4.03
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
6.25
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Australia. National Premier League. New South Wales
QUANTITY 172
ROI +45.74%
EARNINGS +$7867
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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