For Marconi Stallions U-20, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Marconi Stallions U-20 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
19/07
Away
38 Manly United U-20
2:1
+81
13/07
Home
39 St George City FA U-20
2:0
+114
07/07
Away
52 Central Coast Mariners U-20
0:2
+8
28/06
Away
26 Sydney FC U-20
2:0
+86
22/06
Home
22 Sutherland Sharks U-20
1:0
+31
16/06
Away
24 APIA Tigers U-20
5:2
+116
11/06
Home
20 Sydney Olympic U-20
3:0
+68
08/06
Away
27 Spirit U-20
3:2
+40
Similarly, for Sydney United U-20, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
24/07
Away
11 Wollongong Wolves U-20
3:1
+40
21/07
Home
24 APIA Tigers U-20
3:1
+61
16/07
Away
22 Sutherland Sharks U-20
4:0
+131
14/07
Away
52 Rockdale Ilinden U-20
0:2
+8
07/07
Home
34 Blacktown City U-20
0:1
+22
26/06
Away
24 APIA Tigers U-20
2:3
+20
23/06
Home
26 St George Saints U-20
3:2
+34
18/06
Home
27 Spirit U-20
8:0
+106
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 544 points to the home team and 422 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Marconi Stallions U-20) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50.7% of victories for the team Marconi Stallions U-20 occurred in home matches. For the team Sydney United U-20 this indicator is 56%. On average, this equates to 53.35%, suggesting a slight advantage for Marconi Stallions U-20 all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Marconi Stallions U-20
Marconi Stallions U-20 50.7%
Sydney United U-20
Sydney United U-20 56%
Average
Average 53.35%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.35% of the home team's points and 46.65% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Marconi Stallions U-20 with an advantage of 290 points against 197. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.58% to 40.42%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 20.33% with a coefficient of 4.92. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.61, and for the away team's victory it is 5.64. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 77.74%, and the away team's victory - 22.26%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Sydney United U-20's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 16.61%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.64, while in reality, it should be 3.11.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.61
4.92
5.64
Our calculation
2.11
4.92
3.11
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
5.64
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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