For Kongsvinger, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Kongsvinger conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
41 Moss
0:1
+42
22/06
Away
33 Sogndal
0:2
+6
16/06
Home
19 Asane
0:5
+1
09/06
Away
15 Aalesund
4:4
+16
01/06
Home
38 Bryne
3:1
+88
27/05
Away
15 Sandnes Ulf
2:0
+42
22/05
Home
22 Mjondalen
3:2
+29
16/05
Away
44 Valerenga
2:0
+101
Similarly, for Levanger, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/07
Away
27 Raufoss
3:0
+143
23/06
Away
35 Stabaek
0:1
+36
16/06
Home
15 Aalesund
4:0
+73
01/06
Home
18 Start
1:1
+14
26/05
Away
44 Valerenga
1:3
+6
22/05
Away
37 Egersund
2:2
+33
16/05
Home
29 Ranheim
2:2
+24
11/05
Away
32 Lyn
1:3
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 325 points to the home team and 332 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Kongsvinger) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.52% of victories for the team Kongsvinger occurred in home matches. For the team Levanger this indicator is 50.82%. On average, this equates to 51.17%, suggesting a slight advantage for Kongsvinger all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger 51.52%
Levanger
Levanger 50.82%
Average
Average 51.17%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.17% of the home team's points and 48.83% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Kongsvinger with an advantage of 167 points against 162. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.67% to 49.33%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.87% with a coefficient of 4.19. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.96, and for the away team's victory it is 3.98. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 66.99%, and the away team's victory - 33.01%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Levanger's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 16.08%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.98, while in reality, it should be 2.66.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.96
4.19
3.98
Our calculation
2.59
4.19
2.66
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
3.98
2024 June
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