For Kingborough Lions, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Kingborough Lions conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
13/07
Away
1 Launceston United
6:0
+4
06/07
Away
42 Devonport City Strikers
2:1
+73
29/06
Home
51 Glenorchy Knights
3:7
+2
22/06
Away
30 Launceston City
3:1
+95
15/06
Home
16 Clarence Zebras
4:3
+26
01/06
Away
22 Riverside Olympic
3:4
+17
25/05
Away
45 South Hobart
3:3
+40
11/05
Home
1 Launceston United
5:0
+3
Similarly, for South Hobart, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/07
Away
30 Launceston City
2:4
+5
06/07
Away
22 Riverside Olympic
2:2
+25
30/06
Home
42 Devonport City Strikers
2:2
+47
23/06
Home
51 Glenorchy Knights
3:2
+80
16/06
Home
1 Launceston United
6:0
+4
01/06
Away
16 Clarence Zebras
1:0
+24
25/05
Home
42 Kingborough Lions
3:3
+36
11/05
Away
30 Launceston City
2:1
+44
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 261 points to the home team and 266 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Kingborough Lions) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50.69% of victories for the team Kingborough Lions occurred in home matches. For the team South Hobart this indicator is 51.47%. On average, this equates to 51.08%, suggesting a slight advantage for Kingborough Lions all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Kingborough Lions
Kingborough Lions 50.69%
South Hobart
South Hobart 51.47%
Average
Average 51.08%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.08% of the home team's points and 48.92% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Kingborough Lions with an advantage of 134 points against 130. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 50.67% to 49.33%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.51% with a coefficient of 4.65. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.37, and for the away team's victory it is 2.05. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.76%, and the away team's victory - 62.25%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kingborough Lions's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 12.27%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.37, while in reality, it should be 2.51.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.37
4.65
2.05
Our calculation
2.51
4.65
2.58
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
3.37
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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