For KFUM, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team KFUM conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
39 Molde
3:2
+81
13/07
Away
23 Tromso
2:1
+43
07/07
Home
40 Viking
1:2
+31
27/06
Away
29 Lillestrom
1:2
+25
02/06
Home
20 Sandefjord
3:3
+15
24/05
Away
49 Bodo/Glimt
2:2
+44
20/05
Home
19 Odd
0:0
+15
16/05
Away
26 Rosenborg
3:1
+75
Similarly, for Bodo/Glimt, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
19/07
Home
19 Odd
3:1
+59
13/07
Away
20 Sandefjord
1:2
+19
07/07
Home
38 Brann
5:1
+193
28/06
Away
25 Sarpsborg 08
2:1
+40
02/06
Away
25 Haugesund
1:0
+42
29/05
Home
20 Sandefjord
1:1
+16
24/05
Home
30 KFUM
2:2
+26
20/05
Away
23 HamKam
0:1
+14
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 329 points to the home team and 409 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (KFUM) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50.85% of victories for the team KFUM occurred in home matches. For the team Bodo/Glimt this indicator is 48.53%. On average, this equates to 49.69%, suggesting a slight advantage for KFUM all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
KFUM
KFUM 50.85%
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt 48.53%
Average
Average 49.69%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 49.69% of the home team's points and 50.31% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Bodo/Glimt with an advantage of 206 points against 163. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 55.72% to 44.28%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 22.32% with a coefficient of 4.48. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.32, and for the away team's victory it is 1.7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 24.17%, and the away team's victory - 75.83%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of KFUM's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 20.11%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.32, while in reality, it should be 2.91.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
5.32
4.48
1.7
Our calculation
2.91
4.48
2.31
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
5.32
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Norway. Eliteserien
QUANTITY 278
ROI +16.19%
EARNINGS +$4500
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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