For Kataller Toyama, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Kataller Toyama conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
13 Grulla Morioka
1:0
+28
13/07
Home
27 Ryukyu
3:0
+117
06/07
Away
29 FC Osaka
0:0
+35
29/06
Home
32 Sagamihara
0:0
+24
26/06
Home
13 Grulla Morioka
3:0
+50
22/06
Away
26 Nagano Parceiro
3:2
+49
16/06
Home
47 Omiya Ardija
1:1
+33
02/06
Away
33 Azul Claro Numazu
0:1
+28
Similarly, for Nagano Parceiro, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
34 Imabari
0:2
+5
13/07
Home
13 Grulla Morioka
0:0
+12
06/07
Away
39 Zweigen Kanazawa
0:3
+4
29/06
Away
30 Matsumoto Yamaga
1:1
+36
22/06
Home
37 Kataller Toyama
2:3
+21
16/06
Away
13 Grulla Morioka
2:3
+11
08/06
Home
25 Yokohama Sports and Culture Club
4:0
+98
01/06
Away
47 Omiya Ardija
1:4
+4
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 364 points to the home team and 190 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Kataller Toyama) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.33% of victories for the team Kataller Toyama occurred in home matches. For the team Nagano Parceiro this indicator is 60.71%. On average, this equates to 59.52%, suggesting a slight advantage for Kataller Toyama all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Kataller Toyama
Kataller Toyama 58.33%
Nagano Parceiro
Nagano Parceiro 60.71%
Average
Average 59.52%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 59.52% of the home team's points and 40.48% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Kataller Toyama with an advantage of 217 points against 77. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.83% to 26.17%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.03% with a coefficient of 3.7. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.98, and for the away team's victory it is 4.44. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 69.11%, and the away team's victory - 30.89%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kataller Toyama's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4.72%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.98, while in reality, it should be 1.86.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.98
3.7
4.44
Our calculation
1.86
3.7
5.24
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
1.98
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Japan. J League. Division 3
QUANTITY 496
ROI +10.76%
EARNINGS +$5337
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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