For JaPS, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team JaPS conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
13/09
Away
45 KTP
2:1
+100
30/08
Home
15 MP
4:0
+73
24/08
Away
25 PK-35
0:0
+32
16/08
Home
27 SalPa
0:2
+3
11/08
Away
39 Jaro
0:5
+2
27/07
Home
39 Jaro
2:2
+27
20/07
Away
37 TPS
0:4
+2
17/07
Home
15 MP
1:1
+10
Similarly, for SJK Akatemia, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
14/09
Home
39 Jaro
2:3
+28
31/08
Away
27 SalPa
1:1
+31
24/08
Home
37 TPS
1:1
+32
19/08
Away
45 KTP
3:3
+51
13/08
Home
19 KaPa
2:0
+46
27/07
Away
15 MP
2:1
+25
20/07
Home
19 KaPa
4:0
+74
17/07
Away
27 SalPa
1:2
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 249 points to the home team and 305 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (JaPS) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.35% of victories for the team JaPS occurred in home matches. For the team SJK Akatemia this indicator is 54.39%. On average, this equates to 57.37%, suggesting a slight advantage for JaPS all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
JaPS
JaPS 60.35%
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia 54.39%
Average
Average 57.37%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.37% of the home team's points and 42.63% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is JaPS with an advantage of 143 points against 130. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 52.34% to 47.66%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.64% with a coefficient of 4.23. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 3.49, and for the away team's victory it is 2.09. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 37.48%, and the away team's victory - 62.52%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of JaPS's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.59%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.49, while in reality, it should be 2.5.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
3.49
4.23
2.09
Our calculation
2.5
4.23
2.75
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
3.49
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
Finland. Ykkosliiga
QUANTITY 73
ROI +38.37%
EARNINGS +$2801
2024 September
QUANTITY 674
ROI +3.01%
EARNINGS +$2027
Romania. Liga I
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
2024 © betzax.com