For Hills United U-20, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Hills United U-20 conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Home
27 Spirit U-20
1:5
+1
05/07
Away
38 Manly United U-20
2:3
+34
30/06
Away
52 Rockdale Ilinden U-20
2:4
+7
22/06
Home
11 Wollongong Wolves U-20
1:2
+9
15/06
Home
27 Sydney United U-20
3:2
+47
11/06
Away
26 Sydney FC U-20
0:3
+2
08/06
Home
52 Central Coast Mariners U-20
1:3
+7
01/06
Away
37 Western Sydney Wanderers U-20
0:0
+32
Similarly, for St George Saints U-20, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Away
11 Wollongong Wolves U-20
1:2
+12
13/07
Home
27 Spirit U-20
1:1
+24
06/07
Home
37 Western Sydney Wanderers U-20
4:3
+51
29/06
Away
24 APIA Tigers U-20
1:1
+29
23/06
Away
27 Sydney United U-20
2:3
+23
15/06
Home
39 St George City FA U-20
1:2
+23
12/06
Home
52 Rockdale Ilinden U-20
1:4
+3
07/06
Away
26 Sydney FC U-20
1:2
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 138 points to the home team and 186 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Hills United U-20) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 40.91% of victories for the team Hills United U-20 occurred in home matches. For the team St George Saints U-20 this indicator is 60.87%. On average, this equates to 50.89%, suggesting a slight advantage for Hills United U-20 all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Hills United U-20
Hills United U-20 40.91%
St George Saints U-20
St George Saints U-20 60.87%
Average
Average 50.89%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 50.89% of the home team's points and 49.11% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is St George Saints U-20 with an advantage of 91 points against 70. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.53% to 43.47%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.75% with a coefficient of 4.21. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.89, and for the away team's victory it is 2.4. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 45.4%, and the away team's victory - 54.6%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of St George Saints U-20's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.63%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.4, while in reality, it should be 2.32.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.89
4.21
2.4
Our calculation
3.02
4.21
2.32
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.4
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
2024 © betzax.com