For Harju JK Laagri, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Harju JK Laagri conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
41 Viimsi
4:4
+47
13/07
Home
17 Kalev Tallinn II
3:3
+17
06/07
Away
20 Elva
0:0
+24
29/06
Home
42 FC Tallinn
1:1
+41
16/06
Home
16 Paide Linnameeskond II
6:0
+79
02/06
Away
41 Viimsi
2:2
+40
30/05
Away
40 Flora II
1:1
+38
26/05
Home
11 Tabasalu Charma
4:3
+13
Similarly, for Tabasalu Charma, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Away
40 Flora II
0:5
+2
13/07
Home
20 Elva
2:2
+18
06/07
Away
32 FCI Levadia II
1:5
+2
29/06
Home
41 Viimsi
0:3
+3
16/06
Away
40 Flora II
0:4
+2
03/06
Away
17 Kalev Tallinn II
1:0
+28
30/05
Home
40 Tartu JK Welco Elekter
1:3
+4
26/05
Away
46 Harju JK Laagri
3:4
+33
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 298 points to the home team and 93 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Harju JK Laagri) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 54.1% of victories for the team Harju JK Laagri occurred in home matches. For the team Tabasalu Charma this indicator is 54.8%. On average, this equates to 54.45%, suggesting a slight advantage for Harju JK Laagri all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Harju JK Laagri
Harju JK Laagri 54.1%
Tabasalu Charma
Tabasalu Charma 54.8%
Average
Average 54.45%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 54.45% of the home team's points and 45.55% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Harju JK Laagri with an advantage of 162 points against 42. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 79.33% to 20.67%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 8.22% with a coefficient of 12.17. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.14, and for the away team's victory it is 23.24. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 95.31%, and the away team's victory - 4.69%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Tabasalu Charma's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 15.98%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 23.24, while in reality, it should be 5.27.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.14
12.17
23.24
Our calculation
1.37
12.17
5.27
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
23.24
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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