For Grorud, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Grorud conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
1 Valerenga 2
5:1
+6
22/06
Home
32 Follo
5:2
+151
14/06
Away
49 Skeid
2:2
+53
08/06
Home
39 Strommen
2:3
+28
02/06
Away
28 Alta
2:1
+50
25/05
Home
8 Gjovik-Lyn
8:0
+29
20/05
Away
36 Stjordals-Blink
2:2
+35
12/05
Home
47 Kjelsas
1:3
+5
Similarly, for Ullensaker/Kisa, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
35 Eidsvold Turn
4:3
+53
22/06
Away
43 Tromsdalen
1:1
+53
15/06
Home
31 Strindheim
3:0
+151
09/06
Away
17 Junkeren
0:3
+1
02/06
Home
1 Valerenga 2
2:1
+1
25/05
Home
47 Kjelsas
0:2
+6
20/05
Away
8 Gjovik-Lyn
4:1
+35
11/05
Home
32 Follo
1:2
+19
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 357 points to the home team and 320 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Grorud) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 51.79% of victories for the team Grorud occurred in home matches. For the team Ullensaker/Kisa this indicator is 50.85%. On average, this equates to 51.32%, suggesting a slight advantage for Grorud all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Grorud
Grorud 51.79%
Ullensaker/Kisa
Ullensaker/Kisa 50.85%
Average
Average 51.32%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.32% of the home team's points and 48.68% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Grorud with an advantage of 183 points against 156. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.04% to 45.96%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 21.79% with a coefficient of 4.59. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.79, and for the away team's victory it is 4.48. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.43%, and the away team's victory - 28.57%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Ullensaker/Kisa's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.93%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.48, while in reality, it should be 2.78.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.79
4.59
4.48
Our calculation
2.37
4.59
2.78
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.48
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Norway. 2nd Division
QUANTITY 289
ROI +21.93%
EARNINGS +$6337
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