For Gimnasia La Plata, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Gimnasia La Plata conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
15/09
Away
27 Tigre
1:1
+34
02/09
Home
26 Argentinos Juniors
1:0
+33
27/08
Away
27 Belgrano
1:0
+61
17/08
Home
34 River Plate
1:1
+23
10/08
Away
37 Racing de Avellaneda
1:0
+73
05/08
Home
29 Rosario Central
0:1
+14
28/07
Away
27 Estudiantes de La Plata
1:4
+2
24/07
Home
22 San Lorenzo
0:1
+10
Similarly, for Deportivo Riestra, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
13/09
Home
36 Huracan
1:0
+46
31/08
Away
36 Union de Santa Fe
0:0
+50
24/08
Home
23 Sarmiento Junin
2:1
+31
20/08
Away
30 Godoy Cruz
1:4
+3
09/08
Home
29 Lanus
3:1
+60
05/08
Home
16 Central Cordoba
1:0
+19
30/07
Away
27 Tigre
1:2
+22
23/07
Home
26 Argentinos Juniors
2:0
+39
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 251 points to the home team and 271 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Gimnasia La Plata) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 60.66% of victories for the team Gimnasia La Plata occurred in home matches. For the team Deportivo Riestra this indicator is 67.86%. On average, this equates to 64.26%, suggesting a slight advantage for Gimnasia La Plata all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Gimnasia La Plata
Gimnasia La Plata 60.66%
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra 67.86%
Average
Average 64.26%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.26% of the home team's points and 35.74% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Gimnasia La Plata with an advantage of 161 points against 97. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 62.47% to 37.53%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.57% with a coefficient of 3.5. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.95, and for the away team's victory it is 4.96. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 71.76%, and the away team's victory - 28.24%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Deportivo Riestra's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 9.28%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.96, while in reality, it should be 3.73.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.95
3.5
4.96
Our calculation
2.24
3.5
3.73
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.96
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 675
ROI +3.61%
EARNINGS +$2434
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