For Fredrikstad, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Fredrikstad conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
23 HamKam
1:0
+41
13/07
Home
39 Molde
0:0
+41
08/07
Away
25 Kristiansund
1:3
+4
02/06
Away
26 Rosenborg
1:1
+30
29/05
Away
23 Tromso
0:3
+2
25/05
Home
23 Tromso
0:0
+21
20/05
Away
29 Lillestrom
3:0
+117
16/05
Home
27 Stromsgodset
4:1
+96
Similarly, for Rosenborg, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
12/07
Away
25 Sarpsborg 08
1:4
+3
07/07
Home
19 Odd
2:1
+25
30/06
Away
40 Viking
2:4
+7
02/06
Home
38 Fredrikstad
1:1
+33
26/05
Home
25 Kristiansund
2:1
+31
20/05
Away
23 Tromso
2:3
+20
16/05
Home
30 KFUM
1:3
+3
11/05
Away
39 Molde
2:2
+40
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 351 points to the home team and 162 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Fredrikstad) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 44.26% of victories for the team Fredrikstad occurred in home matches. For the team Rosenborg this indicator is 67.21%. On average, this equates to 55.74%, suggesting a slight advantage for Fredrikstad all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad 44.26%
Rosenborg
Rosenborg 67.21%
Average
Average 55.74%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 55.74% of the home team's points and 44.26% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Fredrikstad with an advantage of 196 points against 72. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 73.21% to 26.79%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 26.67% with a coefficient of 3.75. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.18, and for the away team's victory it is 3.63. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 62.43%, and the away team's victory - 37.57%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Fredrikstad's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 10.78%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.18, while in reality, it should be 1.86.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.18
3.75
3.63
Our calculation
1.86
3.75
5.09
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.18
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