For FK Beograd, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team FK Beograd conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
37 Campbelltown City
2:4
+7
13/07
Home
25 Adelaide Raiders
3:1
+72
28/06
Away
26 Para Hills Knights
3:1
+86
22/06
Away
34 Adelaide Comets
1:1
+38
15/06
Home
29 Adelaide City
0:1
+19
07/06
Away
13 South Adelaide Panthers
1:1
+13
01/06
Home
20 Adelaide Olympic
4:0
+75
25/05
Away
43 Metrostars
1:2
+28
Similarly, for Modbury Jets, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
34 Adelaide Comets
3:0
+182
13/07
Away
29 Adelaide City
2:0
+94
29/06
Home
13 South Adelaide Panthers
3:3
+14
22/06
Away
20 Adelaide Olympic
4:1
+101
14/06
Home
43 Metrostars
1:1
+44
08/06
Away
28 Croydon Kings
4:0
+140
01/06
Home
30 Adelaide United U-21
4:4
+27
25/05
Away
26 Para Hills Knights
0:2
+3
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 338 points to the home team and 605 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (FK Beograd) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.73% of victories for the team FK Beograd occurred in home matches. For the team Modbury Jets this indicator is 48.49%. On average, this equates to 53.61%, suggesting a slight advantage for FK Beograd all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
FK Beograd
FK Beograd 58.73%
Modbury Jets
Modbury Jets 48.49%
Average
Average 53.61%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.61% of the home team's points and 46.39% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Modbury Jets with an advantage of 280 points against 181. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 60.73% to 39.27%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.92% with a coefficient of 4.18. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.86, and for the away team's victory it is 2.43. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 46.03%, and the away team's victory - 53.98%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Modbury Jets's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 1.14%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.43, while in reality, it should be 2.16.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.86
4.18
2.43
Our calculation
3.35
4.18
2.16
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
2.43
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
2024 © betzax.com