For Figueirense, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Figueirense conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
31 Tombense
1:1
+46
15/07
Away
30 Nautico-PE
0:4
+2
07/07
Home
42 Athletic
0:0
+34
04/07
Away
22 CSA
1:3
+4
24/06
Away
43 Sao Bernardo
2:1
+91
16/06
Home
22 Confianca
2:0
+37
08/06
Home
25 ABC-RN
1:1
+17
02/06
Away
17 Caxias
1:2
+15
Similarly, for Remo, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
23/07
Home
22 CSA
2:1
+33
16/07
Away
42 Ferroviaria
1:2
+41
09/07
Away
17 Caxias
4:2
+70
30/06
Home
18 Ferroviario
2:1
+21
25/06
Away
25 ABC-RN
1:3
+4
16/06
Home
36 Ypiranga
1:0
+32
10/06
Home
43 Sao Bernardo
0:1
+19
01/06
Away
21 Sampaio Correa-MA
2:1
+38
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 247 points to the home team and 259 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Figueirense) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.29% of victories for the team Figueirense occurred in home matches. For the team Remo this indicator is 64.52%. On average, this equates to 64.4%, suggesting a slight advantage for Figueirense all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Figueirense
Figueirense 64.29%
Remo
Remo 64.52%
Average
Average 64.4%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 64.4% of the home team's points and 35.6% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Figueirense with an advantage of 159 points against 92. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 63.3% to 36.7%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.3% with a coefficient of 3.3. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.29, and for the away team's victory it is 3.85. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 62.7%, and the away team's victory - 37.3%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Figueirense's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 0.59%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.29, while in reality, it should be 2.27.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.29
3.3
3.85
Our calculation
2.27
3.3
3.91
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.29
2024 June
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ROI +10.03%
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2024 July
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ROI +7.75%
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15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
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Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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