For Fenix, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Fenix conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
53 Penarol
0:2
+9
14/07
Home
39 Defensor Sporting
1:2
+34
07/07
Home
23 River Plate Montevideo
1:0
+44
22/06
Away
23 Deportivo Maldonado
3:1
+69
16/06
Home
30 Montevideo Wanderers
3:1
+83
08/06
Away
26 Racing Montevideo
1:2
+18
02/06
Home
53 Penarol
0:1
+37
26/05
Away
23 Deportivo Maldonado
1:0
+31
Similarly, for Progreso, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
23 Deportivo Maldonado
0:1
+18
14/07
Away
30 Montevideo Wanderers
2:4
+5
07/07
Home
26 Racing Montevideo
3:2
+42
23/06
Home
53 Penarol
0:2
+7
16/06
Away
39 Defensor Sporting
1:1
+42
09/06
Home
23 River Plate Montevideo
1:0
+34
04/06
Home
34 Cerro Largo
0:1
+20
24/05
Away
53 Penarol
1:3
+7
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 325 points to the home team and 175 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Fenix) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 44.68% of victories for the team Fenix occurred in home matches. For the team Progreso this indicator is 55%. On average, this equates to 49.84%, suggesting a slight advantage for Fenix all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Fenix
Fenix 44.68%
Progreso
Progreso 55%
Average
Average 49.84%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 49.84% of the home team's points and 50.16% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Fenix with an advantage of 162 points against 88. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 64.79% to 35.21%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 29.24% with a coefficient of 3.42. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.65, and for the away team's victory it is 3.03. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 53.35%, and the away team's victory - 46.65%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Fenix's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.07%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.65, while in reality, it should be 2.18.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.65
3.42
3.03
Our calculation
2.18
3.42
4.01
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.65
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Uruguay. Primera Division
QUANTITY 225
ROI +18.56%
EARNINGS +$4176
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