For FC Osaka, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team FC Osaka conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Home
47 Omiya Ardija
0:0
+46
14/07
Away
30 Matsumoto Yamaga
0:2
+5
06/07
Home
37 Kataller Toyama
0:0
+33
29/06
Home
18 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
4:1
+82
23/06
Away
31 Fukushima United
0:2
+4
15/06
Home
21 Gainare Tottori
2:1
+32
09/06
Away
16 Kamatamare Sanuki
1:0
+26
02/06
Home
26 Nara
0:0
+22
Similarly, for Kamatamare Sanuki, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
32 Sagamihara
0:0
+27
13/07
Away
47 Omiya Ardija
0:1
+48
07/07
Home
27 Ryukyu
0:1
+19
30/06
Away
34 Imabari
1:2
+32
22/06
Away
18 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
3:3
+19
16/06
Home
39 Zweigen Kanazawa
0:1
+24
09/06
Home
29 FC Osaka
0:1
+17
02/06
Away
31 Fukushima United
1:0
+48
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 250 points to the home team and 233 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (FC Osaka) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 55.36% of victories for the team FC Osaka occurred in home matches. For the team Kamatamare Sanuki this indicator is 60.78%. On average, this equates to 58.07%, suggesting a slight advantage for FC Osaka all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
FC Osaka
FC Osaka 55.36%
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki 60.78%
Average
Average 58.07%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.07% of the home team's points and 41.93% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is FC Osaka with an advantage of 145 points against 98. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 59.81% to 40.19%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 30.49% with a coefficient of 3.28. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.24, and for the away team's victory it is 4.04. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 64.37%, and the away team's victory - 35.63%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Kamatamare Sanuki's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.31%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.04, while in reality, it should be 3.58.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.24
3.28
4.04
Our calculation
2.41
3.28
3.58
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
4.04
2024 June
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ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
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ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Japan. J League. Division 3
QUANTITY 496
ROI +10.76%
EARNINGS +$5337
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