For Deportivo Muniz, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Deportivo Muniz conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
38 Argentino de Rosario
0:3
+4
14/07
Home
30 Defensores Cambaceres
2:0
+89
08/07
Away
30 Atlas
2:4
+5
28/06
Away
32 Deportivo Espanol
0:4
+2
24/06
Home
29 Centro Espanol
2:1
+42
19/06
Away
26 Victoriano Arenas
4:2
+81
16/06
Home
23 Leandro N. Alem
3:0
+87
08/06
Away
29 Central Ballester
0:1
+19
Similarly, for Real Pilar, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
40 General Lamadrid
0:0
+40
13/07
Away
33 Ituzaingo
0:0
+39
06/07
Home
25 El Porvenir
1:0
+40
29/06
Home
30 Lujan
1:2
+23
23/06
Away
27 Sportivo Barracas
1:1
+30
19/06
Home
37 Berazategui
2:2
+32
15/06
Away
27 Yupanqui
1:1
+26
09/06
Home
36 Justo Jose de Urquiza
3:1
+81
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 328 points to the home team and 310 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Deportivo Muniz) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 56.67% of victories for the team Deportivo Muniz occurred in home matches. For the team Real Pilar this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 53.33%, suggesting a slight advantage for Deportivo Muniz all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Deportivo Muniz
Deportivo Muniz 56.67%
Real Pilar
Real Pilar 50%
Average
Average 53.33%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 53.33% of the home team's points and 46.67% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Deportivo Muniz with an advantage of 175 points against 144. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.81% to 45.19%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.1% with a coefficient of 3.69. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.27, and for the away team's victory it is 3.47. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 60.5%, and the away team's victory - 39.5%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Real Pilar's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 5.51%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.47, while in reality, it should be 3.04.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.27
3.69
3.47
Our calculation
2.5
3.69
3.04
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
3.47
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
Argentina. Primera C Metropolitana. Group Stage
QUANTITY 393
ROI +28.5%
EARNINGS +$11199
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
2024 © betzax.com