For Deportes Temuco, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Deportes Temuco conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
20/07
Away
33 Deportes Limache
1:0
+68
13/07
Home
32 San Marcos de Arica
0:0
+27
01/06
Home
45 La Serena
0:1
+30
26/05
Away
30 Deportes Recoleta
1:2
+26
18/05
Home
38 Barnechea
0:1
+20
14/05
Away
27 Universidad Concepcion
0:0
+30
04/05
Home
26 Deportes Santa Cruz
1:1
+15
28/04
Away
25 Curico Unido
0:0
+24
Similarly, for Magallanes, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
45 La Serena
1:2
+34
16/07
Away
33 Rangers Talca
3:2
+62
03/06
Away
25 San Luis
1:0
+52
25/05
Home
11 Union San Felipe
2:1
+15
19/05
Away
32 Antofagasta
1:2
+31
11/05
Home
33 Deportes Limache
2:2
+27
04/05
Home
38 Barnechea
3:0
+110
28/04
Away
30 Deportes Recoleta
1:0
+45
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 241 points to the home team and 376 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Deportes Temuco) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 58.07% of victories for the team Deportes Temuco occurred in home matches. For the team Magallanes this indicator is 57.81%. On average, this equates to 57.94%, suggesting a slight advantage for Deportes Temuco all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Deportes Temuco
Deportes Temuco 58.07%
Magallanes
Magallanes 57.81%
Average
Average 57.94%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 57.94% of the home team's points and 42.06% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Magallanes with an advantage of 158 points against 139. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 53.14% to 46.86%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.25% with a coefficient of 3.67. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 4.21, and for the away team's victory it is 2.04. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 32.64%, and the away team's victory - 67.36%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Deportes Temuco's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.22%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 4.21, while in reality, it should be 2.93.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
4.21
3.67
2.04
Our calculation
2.93
3.67
2.59
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
4.21
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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