For Degerfors, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Degerfors conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
26 Ostersunds
1:2
+31
29/06
Home
35 Sandvikens
4:1
+143
23/06
Away
24 Oddevold
1:1
+33
15/06
Away
25 Skovde AIK
2:0
+100
01/06
Home
31 Utsiktens
3:1
+64
28/05
Home
23 Varbergs
1:1
+17
23/05
Away
31 Brage
1:0
+58
18/05
Home
21 Orgryte
4:1
+69
Similarly, for Skovde AIK, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Home
31 Brage
1:0
+40
30/06
Away
21 Orgryte
0:2
+4
23/06
Home
35 Sandvikens
0:2
+4
15/06
Home
38 Degerfors
0:2
+3
02/06
Away
23 Varbergs
2:2
+26
26/05
Home
42 Osters
1:2
+21
22/05
Away
33 Helsingborgs
1:0
+60
18/05
Home
26 Ostersunds
1:0
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 516 points to the home team and 179 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Degerfors) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 67.86% of victories for the team Degerfors occurred in home matches. For the team Skovde AIK this indicator is 72.41%. On average, this equates to 70.14%, suggesting a slight advantage for Degerfors all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Degerfors
Degerfors 67.86%
Skovde AIK
Skovde AIK 72.41%
Average
Average 70.14%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 70.14% of the home team's points and 29.86% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Degerfors with an advantage of 362 points against 53. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 87.13% to 12.87%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 20.79% with a coefficient of 4.81. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.52, and for the away team's victory it is 7.49. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 83.14%, and the away team's victory - 16.87%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Degerfors's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 4%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 1.52, while in reality, it should be 1.45.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.52
4.81
7.49
Our calculation
1.45
4.81
9.81
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
1.52
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
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2024 July
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ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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