For Colegiales, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Colegiales conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
19 San Martin Burzaco
2:1
+44
16/07
Home
28 Deportivo UAI Urquiza
1:0
+46
09/07
Away
23 Villa Dalmine
1:0
+50
06/07
Away
32 Dock Sud
0:0
+36
29/06
Home
27 Flandria
1:0
+37
22/06
Away
16 Villa San Carlos
2:0
+47
17/06
Away
16 Sportivo Italiano
1:0
+27
09/06
Home
34 Argentino de Merlo
1:0
+46
Similarly, for Acassuso, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Home
32 Dock Sud
0:2
+5
14/07
Away
27 Flandria
0:0
+33
09/07
Home
16 Villa San Carlos
1:2
+11
06/07
Away
16 Sportivo Italiano
1:2
+16
29/06
Home
34 Argentino de Merlo
0:1
+24
22/06
Away
25 Liniers
1:1
+26
15/06
Away
27 Comunicaciones
1:0
+45
09/06
Home
42 Deportivo Armenio
1:3
+5
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 333 points to the home team and 164 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Colegiales) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 50% of victories for the team Colegiales occurred in home matches. For the team Acassuso this indicator is 52.08%. On average, this equates to 51.04%, suggesting a slight advantage for Colegiales all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Colegiales
Colegiales 50%
Acassuso
Acassuso 52.08%
Average
Average 51.04%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 51.04% of the home team's points and 48.96% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Colegiales with an advantage of 170 points against 80. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 67.92% to 32.08%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.78% with a coefficient of 3.6. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.73, and for the away team's victory it is 7. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 80.22%, and the away team's victory - 19.78%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Acassuso's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 11.77%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 7, while in reality, it should be 4.32.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.73
3.6
7
Our calculation
2.04
3.6
4.32
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Away Win
7
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
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ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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