For Chacarita Juniors, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Chacarita Juniors conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
21/07
Away
23 Talleres Remedios
1:2
+24
13/07
Home
29 Quilmes
0:4
+1
07/07
Away
36 San Miguel
1:2
+37
30/06
Home
32 Ferro Carril Oeste
1:1
+25
23/06
Away
33 Deportivo Maipu
2:0
+122
12/06
Away
31 Gimnasia de Jujuy
1:0
+69
01/06
Home
19 Atletico Guemes
2:0
+37
26/05
Away
23 Alvarado
1:2
+20
Similarly, for Estudiantes Caseros, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
20/07
Away
24 Almagro
0:1
+32
13/07
Home
23 Talleres Remedios
2:1
+35
07/07
Away
29 Quilmes
0:1
+32
29/06
Home
36 San Miguel
1:1
+26
23/06
Away
32 Ferro Carril Oeste
2:2
+39
09/06
Away
33 Deportivo Maipu
0:1
+33
02/06
Home
31 Gimnasia de Jujuy
1:0
+24
26/05
Away
19 Atletico Guemes
0:1
+16
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 334 points to the home team and 236 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Chacarita Juniors) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 64.82% of victories for the team Chacarita Juniors occurred in home matches. For the team Estudiantes Caseros this indicator is 69.09%. On average, this equates to 66.95%, suggesting a slight advantage for Chacarita Juniors all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors 64.82%
Estudiantes Caseros
Estudiantes Caseros 69.09%
Average
Average 66.95%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 66.95% of the home team's points and 33.05% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Chacarita Juniors with an advantage of 224 points against 78. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 74.13% to 25.87%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 34.48% with a coefficient of 2.9. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.64, and for the away team's victory it is 3.63. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 57.89%, and the away team's victory - 42.11%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Chacarita Juniors's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 14.48%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.64, while in reality, it should be 2.06.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.64
2.9
3.63
Our calculation
2.06
2.9
5.9
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.64
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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