For Botafogo-SP, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Botafogo-SP conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
14/09
Away
42 Novorizontino
0:2
+9
10/09
Home
25 Goias
1:0
+33
31/08
Away
21 Chapecoense
1:1
+25
22/08
Away
33 Mirassol
2:1
+72
19/08
Home
27 Paysandu
1:1
+20
10/08
Away
29 America-MG
1:3
+5
03/08
Home
27 Coritiba
2:0
+51
31/07
Away
28 Avai
1:1
+28
Similarly, for Santos, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
15/09
Home
29 America-MG
2:1
+37
07/09
Away
23 Brusque
1:0
+52
31/08
Home
25 Ponte Preta
2:2
+17
24/08
Home
35 Amazonas
0:0
+27
22/08
Away
23 Guarani de Campinas
1:1
+28
17/08
Home
28 Avai
0:1
+16
10/08
Away
27 Paysandu
3:0
+138
03/08
Home
33 Sport Recife
1:1
+20
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 243 points to the home team and 335 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Botafogo-SP) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 62.5% of victories for the team Botafogo-SP occurred in home matches. For the team Santos this indicator is 62.3%. On average, this equates to 62.4%, suggesting a slight advantage for Botafogo-SP all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Botafogo-SP
Botafogo-SP 62.5%
Santos
Santos 62.3%
Average
Average 62.4%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 62.4% of the home team's points and 37.6% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Botafogo-SP with an advantage of 151 points against 126. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 54.61% to 45.39%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.01% with a coefficient of 3.57. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 5.08, and for the away team's victory it is 1.91. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 27.37%, and the away team's victory - 72.63%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Botafogo-SP's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 25.48%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.08, while in reality, it should be 2.54.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
5.08
3.57
1.91
Our calculation
2.54
3.57
3.06
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
5.08
2024 August
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ROI +3.01%
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