For Bohemians Dublin, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Bohemians Dublin conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
06/09
Home
34 Shelbourne
1:1
+32
01/09
Home
32 Shamrock Rovers
2:1
+50
23/08
Away
34 Shelbourne
1:1
+41
09/08
Home
33 Waterford
2:3
+25
02/08
Away
19 Drogheda Utd
2:2
+22
26/07
Home
22 Dundalk
1:1
+15
12/07
Home
32 Sligo Rovers
0:2
+3
04/07
Away
33 Galway United
1:1
+30
Similarly, for Drogheda Utd, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
01/09
Away
27 St Patrick's
1:4
+3
23/08
Home
32 Sligo Rovers
7:0
+124
11/08
Away
32 Shamrock Rovers
1:1
+43
02/08
Home
25 Bohemians Dublin
2:2
+20
26/07
Home
33 Waterford
2:0
+81
12/07
Away
22 Dundalk
2:4
+4
04/07
Home
34 Shelbourne
1:1
+22
28/06
Away
37 Derry City
1:5
+2
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 218 points to the home team and 299 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Bohemians Dublin) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 53.45% of victories for the team Bohemians Dublin occurred in home matches. For the team Drogheda Utd this indicator is 64.29%. On average, this equates to 58.87%, suggesting a slight advantage for Bohemians Dublin all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Bohemians Dublin
Bohemians Dublin 53.45%
Drogheda Utd
Drogheda Utd 64.29%
Average
Average 58.87%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.87% of the home team's points and 41.13% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Bohemians Dublin with an advantage of 128 points against 123. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 51.09% to 48.91%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 23.42% with a coefficient of 4.27. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.76, and for the away team's victory it is 5.06. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 74.19%, and the away team's victory - 25.81%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Drogheda Utd's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 23.09%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 5.06, while in reality, it should be 2.67.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
1.76
4.27
5.06
Our calculation
2.56
4.27
2.67
Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Away Win
5.06
2024 August
QUANTITY 1356
ROI +8.42%
EARNINGS +$11416
2024 September
QUANTITY 676
ROI +3.45%
EARNINGS +$2334
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
QUANTITY 256
ROI +8.54%
EARNINGS +$2187
Romania. Liga I
Republic of Ireland. Premier Division
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