For Barnechea, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Barnechea conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
23/07
Away
25 Curico Unido
1:0
+63
16/07
Home
26 Deportes Santa Cruz
4:2
+50
04/06
Away
33 Deportes Limache
2:2
+40
28/05
Home
27 Universidad Concepcion
0:0
+19
18/05
Away
20 Deportes Temuco
1:0
+41
12/05
Home
32 Antofagasta
0:0
+18
04/05
Away
36 Magallanes
0:3
+3
28/04
Away
32 San Marcos de Arica
4:1
+167
Similarly, for Deportes Recoleta, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
22/07
Home
11 Union San Felipe
0:0
+11
17/07
Away
28 Santiago Wanderers
1:1
+32
10/06
Away
33 Santiago Morning
1:2
+30
04/06
Away
33 Rangers Talca
2:1
+53
26/05
Home
20 Deportes Temuco
2:1
+29
12/05
Home
45 La Serena
0:0
+38
05/05
Away
25 San Luis
0:1
+18
28/04
Home
36 Magallanes
0:1
+21
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 402 points to the home team and 232 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Barnechea) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 70% of victories for the team Barnechea occurred in home matches. For the team Deportes Recoleta this indicator is 50%. On average, this equates to 60%, suggesting a slight advantage for Barnechea all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Barnechea
Barnechea 70%
Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Recoleta 50%
Average
Average 60%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 60% of the home team's points and 40% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Barnechea with an advantage of 241 points against 93. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 72.19% to 27.81%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.1% with a coefficient of 3.69. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.14, and for the away team's victory it is 3.84. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 64.25%, and the away team's victory - 35.75%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Barnechea's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 6.84%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.14, while in reality, it should be 1.9.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.14
3.69
3.84
Our calculation
1.9
3.69
4.93
We suggest using our prediction. But we do not guarantee that the bet will definitely win. Our strategy is designed to generate profits over the long term.
Home Win
2.14
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
15 July 2024 - 21 July 2024
QUANTITY 280
ROI +14.85%
EARNINGS +$4158
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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