For Bahia, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Bahia conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.
25/07
Away
14 Atletico-GO
1:1
+21
21/07
Home
22 Corinthians-SP
0:1
+12
13/07
Home
22 Cuiaba
1:2
+15
11/07
Away
31 Athletico Paranaense
3:1
+126
08/07
Away
41 Palmeiras
0:2
+8
05/07
Home
27 Juventude
2:0
+45
30/06
Away
36 Sao Paulo
1:3
+6
27/06
Home
27 Vasco da Gama-RJ
2:1
+25
Similarly, for Internacional-RS, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.
21/07
Away
44 Botafogo-RJ
0:1
+44
08/07
Home
27 Vasco da Gama-RJ
1:2
+19
05/07
Away
17 Fluminense
1:1
+23
01/07
Away
23 Criciuma
1:1
+28
27/06
Home
32 Atletico-MG
1:2
+20
22/06
Away
19 Gremio
1:0
+37
20/06
Home
22 Corinthians-SP
1:0
+24
16/06
Away
17 Vitoria-BA
1:2
+14
After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 258 points to the home team and 208 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Bahia) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.
Accumulated points
To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 69.36% of victories for the team Bahia occurred in home matches. For the team Internacional-RS this indicator is 53.45%. On average, this equates to 61.4%, suggesting a slight advantage for Bahia all other things being equal.
Percentage of home wins by teams
Bahia
Bahia 69.36%
Internacional-RS
Internacional-RS 53.45%
Average
Average 61.4%
Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 61.4% of the home team's points and 38.6% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Bahia with an advantage of 159 points against 80. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 66.35% to 33.65%.
Points earned with home win percentage
Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 28.01% with a coefficient of 3.57. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.21, and for the away team's victory it is 3.76. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 63.01%, and the away team's victory - 36.99%. This differs from our calculations.
Comparison of calculated data with bookmakers
Bookmakers
Our calculation
As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Bahia's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.71%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 2.21, while in reality, it should be 2.09.
Comparison with bookmakers odds
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Bookmakers
2.21
3.57
3.76
Our calculation
2.09
3.57
4.13
The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.
Home Win
2.21
2024 June
QUANTITY 1383
ROI +10.03%
EARNINGS +$13868
2024 July
QUANTITY 1211
ROI +7.75%
EARNINGS +$9384
Brazil. Serie A
QUANTITY 467
ROI +15.29%
EARNINGS +$7139
Argentina. Primera Division
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana
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